Mr.
Advani and Mr. Vajpayee are nobody's fools. Nor are they
babes in the woods. With over a hundred years of political
experience between them, and the destiny of a billion people
in their hands, their actions cannot be viewed simplistically.
Theatricals,yes. Histrionics, yes. Even sabre-rattling is
acceptable. But as for war, a firm and resounding no. For
war is no more than one of many means of achieving an aim.
And the overt and covert aims of India today can not only
be achieved in ways other than war, but war is the one sure
way of defeating those aims.
Locked in a bloody
uprising in Kashmir for over a decade, the immediate objective
of any Indian Government is to end that uprising, bring
peace to the Valley, retain the Union and free up hundreds
of thousands of military and para-military personnel employed
on security duties. That can only be done if Kashmiri militants
can be curbed. The surest way for this is to stop their
foreign (and particularly Pakistani) support, be it moral,
financial or military. Indian governments in recent years
have termed the Kashmir uprising as cross-border terrorism
which they must crush, funded and controlled as it is by
Jihadi organizations in Pakistan which, in turn, are sponsored
by Pakistan's powerful and highly autonomous Inter Services
Intelligence. Many people in the know, both in India and
in Pakistan, agree with this assessment, particularly in
light of some infamous and generally disastrous rogue policies
of bellicose ISI Chieftains of the past, in Afghanistan
and even in lands as far away as Chechenya and the Philippines.
In fact, several responsible Kashmiri leaders have termed
the ISI's role in Kashmir, well-intentioned though it may
have been, as being against the very interests of the freedom
fighters. The people and the governments of Pakistan, by
and large, have full sympathy with the Kashmiri people and
will always support their genuine struggle for self-determination.
But equally they abhor the killing and maiming of Kashmiri
civilians by Indian security forces and by foreign mercenaries,
just as they equally abhor the vicious mullahs who disfigure
Kashmiri women by throwing acid on their uncovered faces.
Call it a freedom movement
or call it by any other name, in the post-September 11 scenario
the world at large will condemn any violence which can be
linked with direct military support from abroad. The US-led
coalition will surely not countenance terrorism, or even
the perception of terrorism, anywhere in the world. They
are now, for the first time in decades, alive to the fact
that regimes of terror in Arabia or Palestine or Kashmir
or Ireland or Israel or Spain or elsewhere inspire terrorists
acts in far-away lands a la September 11. The coalition's
objectives today are almost identical to those of India's:
terrorism must be crushed, wherever or whatever be its origin.
The powerful international anti-terrorist message of the
last three months has emboldened Russia and Israel to come
down harder on the Chechens and the Palestinians respectively.
This has emboldened the Indians to act more firmly and decisively
with their own problem in Kashmir.
Here the Indians are faced
with a dilemma. They see terrorism in Kashmir sponsored
exclusively by Pakistan. But the world sees Pakistan as
a key ally of the US in the on-gong operations to destroy
the Arab terrorists of Al Qaeda and their Afghan Taliban
supporters.
Pakistan's support for the
US-led anti-terrorist war in Afghanistan has been most critical
and decisive, ranging from solid logistic support; to vital
operational intelligence; to use of forward airbases; to
providing safety and security for US personnel scattered
in small groups in a dozen different locations in Pakistan.
It is this support alone which has enabled the US to win
such a decisive victory over the Taliban at a negligible
cost in a very short time, helping George Bush's personal
approval rating to soar over 80% for weeks on end.
But America's aim is by no
means merely the destruction of the Taliban. It continues
to be the destruction of Osama and his Al Qaeda network,
whom they hold directly responsible for the carnage in New
York and Washington. In the highly unlikely event that Mr.
Bush deviates from this aim, the American people will not
forgive him. The trauma of the brazen and unprecendent attack
on the US homeland will not permit any compromise on this
one issue. And the US is aware that all the Al Qaeda leadership,
Osama bin Laden and thousands of his Arab Al Qaeda fighters
are holed up in the mountains of Afghanistan and the border
areas of Pakistan. Without the direct, positive and unflinching
support of Pakistan, the entire Al Qaeda network will slip
out of America's grip, only to wreak future carnage anywhere
in America or Europe at times and places of their own choosing.
This scenario the US certainly
cannot even contemplate, leave alone condone. And the one
sure way of defeating the American military objective of
the destruction of Al Qaeda is an Indian attack on Pakistan.
Already, with the mere threat of an Indian attack, Pakistan
has had to strengthen its Eastern front. If an attack does
come from India, troops deployed on the Afghan border (helping
both contain Al Qaeda and protect American troops) will
have to be moved to the Indian front. After all, the Pakistan
Army will give exclusive priority to defending its own homeland,
rather than hunting Al Qaeda. This will surely lead to the
hundreds (if not thousands) of Al-Qaeda fighters immediately
getting complete freedom of movement and disappearing permanently
into oblivion, never again to be cornered en masse by the
coalition and free to continue their operations around the
globe. Even the several hundred presently in captivity would
escape. This would be a body blow to the US, completely
destroying the aims and objectives of the coalition against
terror and exposing the Western world to definite terrorists
attacks in the future. Long before such attacks take place,
the small groups of American troops at airbases provided
to US forces by Pakistan like Pasni, Jacobabad and Kohat,
will no longer have the protection of the Pakistan Army
under whose cover today they operate with impunity. Nothing
would gives Al Qaeda greater joy than to attack, humiliate,
mutilate and destroy their bitterest enemies, in the same
manner as did the warlords of Mogadishu. The Americans would
be left with no option but to abandon their operations and
retreat in humiliation from the front-line, as otherwise
they would be defenceless.
All this would be the logical
outcome of any attack by India on Pakistan. If for no other
reason --- not for world peace, not for regional prosperity,
not for harmony amongst nations, not for American homeland
security --- this alone should be sufficient for the US
to come out openly and publicly to state that an Indian
attack on Pakistan must be treated as a direct attack on
the US. Or else American leadership will never be forgiven
by a bitter nation being crassly let down by its own leaders
in its hour of need.
In all fairness, world leaders
are already working hard to persuade the Indians not to
indulge in suicidal adventurism, even if they feel their
cause is just. After all, as they are constantly reminded,
neither is India the US nor Pakistan the Taliban. More significantly,
Pakistan's General Parvez Musharef has personally been at
the forefront of anti-terrorist operations against militant
fundamentalists in Pakistan long before the tragedy of 11
September. Short of disbanding the ISI (which perhaps may
not be such a bad idea after all) he has taken all other
measures to rid his country of the scourge of religious
hatred, intolerance and bigotry which had plagued the nation
for the last two decades and brought it worldwide condemnation
and rebuke.
The need of the hour is to
support his widely acclaimed campaign, rather than indulge
in meaningless and ill-advised war-mongering. And again,
in all fairness, the Vajpaees and Advanis of the world appear
to have aped the American initiative simply for domestic
political mileage --- but only as long as they restrict
their rhetoric to that. Otherwise, India could fast approach
the status of becoming the next enemy of the US. After all,
he who scuttles your national objectives could surely be
no friend. The Americans, if they so choose, can find ample
cause to take action against India in view of its brazen
acts of terror against Kashmiris, Nagas, Tamils, Dalits,
Christians, Sikhs and Muslims alike, whose plight is well
known to all the world and who also merit the same security
and respect for rights as do people in Europe, America and
elsewhere in the free world. Saner elements in India's democratic
leadership will surely not permit the extremists of the
Shiv Sena and BJP to lead the country along such a calamitous
path.
Despite all this, and under
domestic political pressure, India may well try to test
the waters by minor incursions or hot pursuit across the
line of control in Kashmir. Both Pakistan and America would
be well advised to react with caution. Otherwise the war
against terror could be lost and a host of new problems
emerge, with the inevitable ascendancy of belligerent Hindu
national socialism, straining to let loose hundreds of millions
of nuclear-armed Hindu fanatics in their quest for social
and religious superiority over the world. The terror of
Al-Qaeda and its supporters pale in comparison to this threat.
