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What's next ?

It is time to stand back and take a good look at Kashmir. There has been a monumental tragedy. The figures keep rising every day---50,000 dead, 70,000 injured, 2.5 million homeless, millions traumatized. These are mere statistics. The real issue is: What next?

There are three distinct phases in the wake of an earthquake. First, of course, is first aid----the immediate rescue and relief stage, when the trapped, the injured, the dead and the survivors have to be cared for. Speed is of the essence, as that alone saves lives. We are passing through this stage today, with the entire nation coming together, as never before in decades. Non- government organizations, overseas Pakistanis and the international community have pitched in. Huge administrative and organizational failures occurred in the beginning, but slowly the operation is beginning to come together. The dead are being buried, medical aid is reaching the injured and survivors are starting to get food and shelter.

Next is the interim phase, which will cover the period till permanent resettlement. This phase can go on for months or years, depending upon national policy. The displaced will be housed in tent villages, where interim arrangements will be made for temporary
civic and social services. Ample funds and supplies are pouring in to help with this phase.

The final phase is one of reconstruction. It will involve a very broad range of activities, from rebuilding the entire infrastructure of roads, bridges, water, power, drainage, sewage, etc; to reconstructing the civic and social services like schools, hospitals, government offices, police stations, courthouses, post offices, mosques, etc; to creating an enabling environment for building new homes; starting new businesses or resuming the ones destroyed; and reconstructing their shattered lives. The international community is already appraising the costs involved, which will undoubtedly run into several billion dollars.

The grave misfortune is that Kashmiris have been totally excluded from the first and interim phases and seem destined to be sidelined in the major reconstruction phase as well. It does not have to be that way.

In the first phase thousands of well-wishers from outside Kashmir descended upon the hardest hit areas. Also came tens of thousands of troops from Gujranwala and Kharian. They quite naturally had no idea of the locality, the terrain, or the people. They could not begin to differentiate between the genuinely needy and the greedy, between the ones in despair and those exploiting. They did their best, without local support, but distribution of relief goods was haphazard. Tens of thousands of Kashmiri government officials have survived the earthquake. With most schools destroyed, thousands of teachers are also available, ready and able, to support the operations. They know the children. They know the families. They are close to the ground. They are well respected in the community. Yet they continue to remain on the sidelines, their invaluable knowledge being put to no use. Unless the local community is involved, the needy will be ignored and lives will be lost. Similarly, in the interim period the local community can help enormously in guiding the administration in setting up and running tent villages effectively, according to local needs.

The final phase of reconstruction is where it can get murky. Reconstruction concerns Kashmir. It must be "of Kashmiris, by Kashmiris, for Kashmiris". The Army's
Engineer-in-Chief has been named to head the reconstruction effort. Fair enough, although it should have been a Kashmiri.He must now be based in Muzzafarabad. Everyone involved in reconstructing Kashmir should be in Kashmir, not Islamabad, not Rawalpindi. That alone will clearly show the intent. Billions of dollars will be spent in Kashmir every year for many years. Kashmiris must have a decisive say in how the money is spent, what is built and where. Planning, execution and oversight bodies must all be under the effective control of Kashmiris. All contracts must go to Kashmiri companies and contractors, who can always hire Pakistani and foreign expertise. And the right signals must go out now, We do not want to flood Kashmir with the Punjabi land mafia and its Islamabad sponsors. And we can just as easily do without a new lot of local Haliburtons emerging, which will surely happen if Islamabad, not Kashmir, calls the shots. The victims are Kashmiris. The beneficiaries must also be Kashmiris.

Once the first aid phase is over and the interim phase begins, Kashmiris should be hired to replace soldiers who can go back to their units, leaving only essential military supervision,engineering and medical teams behind. It will enable tens of thousands of Kashmiris who have lost their livelihoods, to earn a fair wage. This will help restore their dignity and is vital for the self-esteem of a proud and traumatized people. Job opportunities have to be created to replace aid dependence.

All of the above may well be obvious. What may not be obvious is that the term Kashmiris should not be limited to Azad Kashmiris.

The earthquake gives us an opportunity to pause and reflect. The Line of Control was irrelevant when terror struck. The past has been terrible for the people on both sides of the Line, with more deaths resulting from militant operations than from the earthquake. A lot of progress is now being made in the on-going India-Pakistan dialogue. Perhaps it is time to build dramatically upon it. The massive reconstruction program of Kashmir will shape the entire region for the 21st Century, bringing newfound prosperity to an impoverished region. Peace is a prerequisite for reconstruction and prosperity. Its beneficiaries must be all Kashmiris. After all, it is everybody's dream that Kashmir will be united one day.

Outlandish though it may seem, the Reconstruction Authority should be given some leeway to interact with the leadership of occupied Kashmir, and perhaps involve them in the reconstruction of Azad Kashmir. Indeed, the Kashmiri community overseas should also be involved, as they are important stakeholders. It will not compromise our security, nor alter our principled stand, but it could well be the most bold and dramatic confidence-building measure in the India-Pakistan dialogue. After all, the dream of changing the geography alone is not enough; more important is to change the mindset. The first steps should be taken today.

For comments: fazaldad@dsl.net.pk
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