An immense amount of good will has surfaced for victims of the earthquake. An entire nation has rallied. But there is a fatal flaw in the total concept of ongoing relief operations. No matter how much effort has gone in already, no matter how much more is put in, there is not enough time to provide heat and shelter to everybody. As the UN predicts, thousands more will die. State policy must be changed immediately to save lives.

More than two weeks into relief operations a great deal of progress has been made. Roads have opened. Supplies have reached hundreds of thousands. But the two weeks have also brought us that much closer to a looming disaster. Despite courageous efforts of individuals, NGOs, the Army, government officials and the international community, the question of providing adequate shelter, food and heat to the entire population throughout the winter does not arise. Not by any stretch of the imagination. The UN's Emergency Relief Coordinator John Egeland after a visit to the region, has spoken bluntly. "Tens of thousands of people's lives are at stake and they could die if we do not get to them in time" he said. As though this was not warning enough, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan stated that thousands would die from exposure and demanded "immediate and exceptional escalation of the global relief efforts".

Winter is upon us. It is no longer around the corner or even fast approaching. Hundreds of thousands will not get shelter. Even those with makeshift shelter have no heat. The inevitable result of exposure to cold is reduction in the body's immunity, which leads to tuberculoses, tetanus, pneumonia etc. The inadequate food, water and sanitation arrangements will cause serious diseases like cholera. It is imperative that maximum number of people are pulled out of these treacherous conditions as swiftly as possible.

An option must be given to the displaced people to come down from the mountains. Hundreds of trucks going up every day with relief goods are returning empty. There is no reason why forty or fifty persons do not return in every truck. Nor indeed is there any reason not to supplement the trucks and make an orderly evacuation of several hundred thousand people from Kashmir and the NWFP. It can be done; and done fairly swiftly. The most vulnerable can be first evacuated. Even those comfortable in good tents in big towns like Muzzafarabad can be evacuated, so that their vacated tents become available for others who have no shelter. Evacuation of the maximum number over the next few weeks is by far the most effective way of saving lives, particularly with a shortage of tents, blankets and heating. It is much easier and cheaper to bring a person down to the plains in a returning truck and house and feed him here; than it is to build a shelter (even a tent) and take all essentials of life up to the mountains throughout the winter.

What would such an evacuation entail? Relocation of as many people as can come down – two hundred thousand, half a million, a million? We have just elected a new lot of Union Councils and Nazims. With over a one hundred districts in Pakistan it should be simple enough to disperse the homeless throughout the country, particularly in NWFP and the Punjab. That would put only a few thousand persons in each district, an easily manageable number. MPAs, Nazims, local bodies, administrators, schools, hospitals etc would all be directly involved at the grass roots level. The entire community would be able to participate in relief work on a daily basis in cash, in kind and as volunteers. There are enough buildings to accommodate the relatively small numbers in every district and more than enough resources are available to cover all their needs.

Town halls, school buildings, mosques and rest houses are available by the thousands. Punjab, with its 60,000 schools and 550,000 employees in the Education Department alone (as compared to only 500,000 in the Pakistan Army:) should have no difficulty in accommodating a large number of people. This year the Haj Complex need not be used for preparing Hajis for the pilgrimage. It is a huge complex which can itself house tens of thousands, Hajis go to the Haj Complex for purely bureaucratic requirements, not as part of the Haj rituals. It is an ideal shelter, within a few hours drive of the devastated areas. And it is empty most of the year. In fact some religion scholars suggest that a noble contribution can be made by those who decide to forgo Haj this year and, instead, donate the money thus saved to care for their displaced countrymen. Particularly those who perform Haj more than once can surely forego this year. The huge amount saved can feed the affectees at the Complex for the whole winter. What a noble act that would be.

We looked after 3 million Afghan refugees for 15 years. But unlike Afghan refugees, escaping a war which lasted a decade, this would be a very temporary arrangement, for a few hundred thousand for only about four months, to escape the killing winter. Come the spring most would immediately return to their homes. In any event, unlike Afghans who are foreigners Kashmiris have a right to live and work anywhere in Pakistan like other Pakistanis.

The needs of the earthquake victims must also be taken into consideration. They want to see their families escape the winter of death and destruction. They are pleading for relief relocating to the plains. There are many examples. The guard of a local security company visited his demolished house in Bagh and returned with forty family members. They have all been accommodated in a converted chicken farm; They are happier and safer than they were in Kashmir and the owner of the company is very happy to look after them. A driver of another local firm came back from his village with a truck load of his family. His firm's owners did not bat an eyelid and agreed to put them up and feed all fifty of them throughout the winter. Tens of thousands of Pakistanis are willing to provide this kind of support, which they can see is tangible and effective, as opposed to donations which may or may not be used effectively. As it is, hundreds of the more affluent have already moved their families to the plains.

The evacuation of a few hundred thousand people out of two and a half million homeless will significantly reduce the number of people exposed to disease and death. It would also reduce by an equivalent number those who have to be supplied essentials of life throughout the winter up in the mountains. Hundreds of thousand will be that much safer. Thousands of lives will be saved. The vast majority of displaced persons will of course remain behind. It is not as though the mountains and valleys will be empty. But by evacuating the maximum number, casualties will drop. The government should now shift its focus a bit and, while continuing to provide all support possible to the affected areas, evacuate as many people as possible to the plains. And soon.