For the last three years 2007 has been widely accepted
as the year for the next elections. Not any more.
The wish-list of the ruling coalition is that the
present parliament re-elects General Musharaf in September/
October 2007 for another 5 years. He then calls for
fresh elections, which can be held at the earliest
in the spring of 2008. So we have gone from 2007 to
2008 already.
An even more sinister plan is being hatched by the
local Machiavellis. They hope that, like he is doing
so generously with everybody else, the President will
give MNAs an extension. To legalise this jugglery
is easy. All it needs is a Constitutional Amendment
to increase their tenure. That should pose no problem
for the rubberstamp parliament, most of whose members
will enthusiastically vote for the Amendment. They
are petrified of facing the electorate and will be
hugely relieved to sit pretty for another couple of
years, a fair reward for their 5 years of servitude.
But these are pipe dreams. The ground reality has
changed dramatically in the last year or so. The country
is slowly being pushed into a corner.
Taliban have resurrected. They have made huge inroads
into FATA and NWFP. In Afghanistan they are gaining
ground, apparently with support from Pakistan, as
voiced by the frustration of American and British
field commanders. In Baluchistan there is an un-easy
stalemate, with almost daily reports of bomb blasts.
The common man is groaning under the weight of soaring
prices. Clean water, electricity and essentials of
life are scarce. A vigilant press is unearthing scam
after scam---railways golf club and engines and wagons;
cement cartel; sugar crisis; stock market yo-yo; Steel
Mills privatization; PM,s foreign junkets; London
black cabs, etc. The list is endless.
While civil society, judiciary, parliament and even
the bureaucracy and police are all working towards
countering human rights abuse, the Ministry of Human
Rights has made a laughing stock of the government.
The Senior Joint Secretary courageously resisted her
Minister's attempts at channelling public money to
over 500 of his constituents in the name of human
rights. He abused and humiliated her, leading to her
tearful public plea to get her out of his clutches.
In an unprecedented move, all officers of the Culture
ministry have requested transfers out of their ministry
because of alleged high- handedness of their Secretary.
As for the Sind government, the less said the better.
Lawlessness is rampant across the land, with rapes,
murders, kidnappings and dacoities on the increase.
What is going on? Who is minding the store? How long
can this continue?
On the international front, things are not looking
good either. The recent cordiality with America was
no honeymoon. The honeymoon was during the Korean
War. Since then it has been like a deeply troubled
marriage, with long periods of bitter separation and
brief interludes of ecstatic reconciliation. Once
again the marriage has entered dangerous waters. The
US administration wants more resolve in countering
Taliban and militant Mullahs. Congress wants Americans
to investigate AQ Khan. The House of Representatives
has cut $200 million from aid to Pakistan, citing
lack of progress towards democracy and a poor record
on human rights. Congress reflects the mood of the
American public, which has turned skeptical towards
Pakistan.
On top of it all has come the bombshell of the Charter.
The domestic political scenario is murky, with everyone
following a different agenda. The President, of course,
wants to stay in power. The "Q" league and
the mullahs will beg him to stay on. Without him they
are history. Mr. Shariff and Ms Bhutto, who together
represent the over-whelming majority of Pakistanis,
have publicly pledged to have no truck with the President.
Come 2007 this will become an insurmountable problem,
particularly with Europe and America forcefully pressing
for democracy and free and fair elections. Worse of
all, he will then be both a lame-duck president and
a lame-duck army chief, a disastrous situation to
be in, where even the "Q"s are likely to
desert him. Even if they are able to re-elect him
through the present assemblies his powers will be
hugely reduced, while his moral authority at home
and abroad will be non-existent.
Today, however, the situation is different. The 17th
Amendemnt gives the President immense powers. It also
bans both Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Shariff from becoming
Prime Minister and, as I have pointed out in these
columns earlier, the two therefore pose no threat
to the President.
A free and fair snap election today is an honorable
way out. Everyone wins. The people win. They get their
first-ever freely elected representative government.
Americans and Europeans win, for they want democracy
in the area. After all, their biggest threat is terrorism,
which thrives exclusively in dictatorships. Ms. Bhutto
and Mr. Shariff win, for they will have demonstrated
their commitment to democracy, even though neither
can become Prime Minister. Most of all, the President
wins. He will have restored his moral authority in
Pakistan and the world by genuinely handing over the
government to a freely elected parliament, while still
continuing to be Army Chief and a powerful President
under the 17th Amendment.
Even the "Q" League and their cohorts win.
Having already been hugely rewarded over the last
3 years, their benefactor the President will keep
them safe from NAB-ing for the next few years, whereas
after an election defeat in 2008 they will surely
be vulnerable to persecution.
On his retirement as Ambassador to the US, Gen Jahangir
Karamat made a very unusual statement. He re-established
his credentials as a democrat by stating that he had
resigned rather than overthrown the Prime Minister
he disagreed with. He then went on to present an agenda
for the future---increased cooperation with Afghanistan;
free and fair elections; Ms. Buhtto and Mr. Shariff
be allowed to return to Pakistan, etc, all music to
American and Pakistani ears.
Could this mean a snap election is near? Considering
that everyone wins and nobody loses, it should be
an option worth exploring.
|