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SNAP ELECTIONS EVERYONE WINS

Saturday, June 24, 2006 The Nation

For the last three years 2007 has been widely accepted as the year for the next elections. Not any more. The wish-list of the ruling coalition is that the present parliament re-elects General Musharaf in September/ October 2007 for another 5 years. He then calls for fresh elections, which can be held at the earliest in the spring of 2008. So we have gone from 2007 to 2008 already.

An even more sinister plan is being hatched by the local Machiavellis. They hope that, like he is doing so generously with everybody else, the President will give MNAs an extension. To legalise this jugglery is easy. All it needs is a Constitutional Amendment to increase their tenure. That should pose no problem for the rubberstamp parliament, most of whose members will enthusiastically vote for the Amendment. They are petrified of facing the electorate and will be hugely relieved to sit pretty for another couple of years, a fair reward for their 5 years of servitude.

But these are pipe dreams. The ground reality has changed dramatically in the last year or so. The country is slowly being pushed into a corner.

Taliban have resurrected. They have made huge inroads into FATA and NWFP. In Afghanistan they are gaining ground, apparently with support from Pakistan, as voiced by the frustration of American and British field commanders. In Baluchistan there is an un-easy stalemate, with almost daily reports of bomb blasts. The common man is groaning under the weight of soaring prices. Clean water, electricity and essentials of life are scarce. A vigilant press is unearthing scam after scam---railways golf club and engines and wagons; cement cartel; sugar crisis; stock market yo-yo; Steel Mills privatization; PM,s foreign junkets; London black cabs, etc. The list is endless.

While civil society, judiciary, parliament and even the bureaucracy and police are all working towards countering human rights abuse, the Ministry of Human Rights has made a laughing stock of the government. The Senior Joint Secretary courageously resisted her Minister's attempts at channelling public money to over 500 of his constituents in the name of human rights. He abused and humiliated her, leading to her tearful public plea to get her out of his clutches. In an unprecedented move, all officers of the Culture ministry have requested transfers out of their ministry because of alleged high- handedness of their Secretary. As for the Sind government, the less said the better. Lawlessness is rampant across the land, with rapes, murders, kidnappings and dacoities on the increase.

What is going on? Who is minding the store? How long can this continue?

On the international front, things are not looking good either. The recent cordiality with America was no honeymoon. The honeymoon was during the Korean War. Since then it has been like a deeply troubled marriage, with long periods of bitter separation and brief interludes of ecstatic reconciliation. Once again the marriage has entered dangerous waters. The US administration wants more resolve in countering Taliban and militant Mullahs. Congress wants Americans to investigate AQ Khan. The House of Representatives has cut $200 million from aid to Pakistan, citing lack of progress towards democracy and a poor record on human rights. Congress reflects the mood of the American public, which has turned skeptical towards Pakistan.

On top of it all has come the bombshell of the Charter.

The domestic political scenario is murky, with everyone following a different agenda. The President, of course, wants to stay in power. The "Q" league and the mullahs will beg him to stay on. Without him they are history. Mr. Shariff and Ms Bhutto, who together represent the over-whelming majority of Pakistanis, have publicly pledged to have no truck with the President. Come 2007 this will become an insurmountable problem, particularly with Europe and America forcefully pressing for democracy and free and fair elections. Worse of all, he will then be both a lame-duck president and a lame-duck army chief, a disastrous situation to be in, where even the "Q"s are likely to desert him. Even if they are able to re-elect him through the present assemblies his powers will be hugely reduced, while his moral authority at home and abroad will be non-existent.

Today, however, the situation is different. The 17th Amendemnt gives the President immense powers. It also bans both Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Shariff from becoming Prime Minister and, as I have pointed out in these columns earlier, the two therefore pose no threat to the President.

A free and fair snap election today is an honorable way out. Everyone wins. The people win. They get their first-ever freely elected representative government. Americans and Europeans win, for they want democracy in the area. After all, their biggest threat is terrorism, which thrives exclusively in dictatorships. Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Shariff win, for they will have demonstrated their commitment to democracy, even though neither can become Prime Minister. Most of all, the President wins. He will have restored his moral authority in Pakistan and the world by genuinely handing over the government to a freely elected parliament, while still continuing to be Army Chief and a powerful President under the 17th Amendment.

Even the "Q" League and their cohorts win. Having already been hugely rewarded over the last 3 years, their benefactor the President will keep them safe from NAB-ing for the next few years, whereas after an election defeat in 2008 they will surely be vulnerable to persecution.

On his retirement as Ambassador to the US, Gen Jahangir Karamat made a very unusual statement. He re-established his credentials as a democrat by stating that he had resigned rather than overthrown the Prime Minister he disagreed with. He then went on to present an agenda for the future---increased cooperation with Afghanistan; free and fair elections; Ms. Buhtto and Mr. Shariff be allowed to return to Pakistan, etc, all music to American and Pakistani ears.

Could this mean a snap election is near? Considering that everyone wins and nobody loses, it should be an option worth exploring.

For comments: fazaldad@dsl.net.pk
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