Naeem Sarfraz

A storm at sea can be devastating. When more than one hit simultaneously there is chaos. Some years back not one, not two but three different weather patterns converged over the Great Banks off the Canadian coast, causing havoc. Survivors termed this confluence of unleashed power "The Perfect Storm".

Islamabad today is bracing itself for its very own Perfect Storm.

For the first time in history several powerful forces are being unleashed simultaneously. In a Parliamentary system when assemblies complete their tenure the Prime Minister, Chief Ministers and all ministers and assembly members go home. Months before their time is up they become lame-duck, bureaucrats wait for their new masters to take control. Fair enough. The country continues to function and there is stabiliy because all the other centers of power remain in control--the Presidency, the Judiciary, and even (in our case) the ever omnipotent Army

2007 is different.

Before the end of the year virtually everyone is scheduled to go home. The PM and all CM's, MNA's and Ministers will go. The term of the President also expires, which means that all his Governors also go. As though that were not stormy enough, and as though there was not sufficient turmoil in a mortally wounded judiciary, Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry's future is uncertain. If he is restored the President will be seriously weakened; and if removed the legal fraternity, already united and up in arms, will make the State ungovernable. To top it all, Acting Chief Justice Bhagwandas is also retiring before yearend.

By early Summer a vacuum will be created in all three organs of state---the Executive, the Legislature and the Judiciary. Everybody will be a lameduck. Another player, and unfortunately a powerful one at that, is the Army. In an incredible and deeply significant co-incidence, the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, the Army Chief and the Vice Chief are all three due to retire before the year is out. Hundreds of senior jobs--ministers, Prime Minister, Chief Ministers, Judges, Governors, Generals---are up for grabs, with the "üsual suspects" already lobbying and scheming.

The Perfect Storm is about to hit us.

Worse still, the ship of State is already leaking, unable to face a storm of such magnitude. There are crises all around---at home and abroad, in Baluchistan and in FATA, in Tank and Islamabad, in security and soaring prices, in Afghanistan and Iran, in extremist vigilantes and retreating state power, in Talibanisation advancing upon a confused leadership.

Who will mind the store? And what of our toiling masses, whose hopes and aspirations lie in ruin in the wake of growing poverty, militancy, intolerance and extremism, with their voices stifled and their leaders in exile? Will the rapidly eroding writ of state sink further into anarchy? These questions need answers. And fast, before calamity strikes.

All is not lost, however. There is still time. Everyone is not yet lameduck. Lest euphoric politicos forget the President, though chastened, remains immensely powerful as the constitutional Chief of the Army till the end of the year. With a bit of give and take, so necessary in democratic governance, we can yet emerge unscathed. All it needs is getting off our collective high horses and suppressing our obscenely inflated egos. Compromise, in the genuine interest of (the much-abused) national interest. No pre-conditions. The President can call snap elections, on a level playing field, with an acceptable Election Commission and participation of all exiled leaders. Let the best team win. And restore the Chief Justice.

The President-cum-Army Chief can effectively monitor a smooth transition. There is a good chance that a grateful nation, with a new leadership in place because of his policies, will re-elect him President, albeit with much reduced involvement in governance and more time for golf.

If he voluntarily decides enough is enough, he can ride into the sunset. He will be the first leader in Pakistan's turbulent history to leave with honour, all others having been unceremoniously booted out, jailed, exiled or executed. Out of office he can be a giant on the international scene, a la Nelson Mandela, a senior statesman who has had his innings and emerged from it with honour and dignity.

I had suggested this option in an article in June, 2006 entitled "Snap Elections--Everybody wins". That was the ideal time, when other voices like those of Roedad Khan, Kamran Shafi, Shafqat Mahmood and Ayaz Amir were also pleading for sanity. As early as 2002 I had also hoped that sanity would prevail, in an article titled "We need our own Mandelas". Other options, good or bad, were available then and were unfortunately excercised, leading to the crisis that is now upon us.

The President must act. America is already distancing itself from him. Soldiers may do the same. After all, Ayub Khan and Yahya were removed not by crowds storming the palace but by senior generals asking them to leave. It need not come to that. The Perfect Storm can not be simply wished away; nor, indeed, can the ship of State be left with lameducks at the helm.