On
again, off again, the word is on the street -----
Benazir Bhutto is all set to join her erstwhile companions
Rao Sikandar and Faisal Saleh Hayat to become a PPP
Patriot. That is the essence of the much-touted “deal”.
A PPP patriot is defined as a committed PPP leader
who abandons ZAB’s passionate fight for democracy
and joins the government of a military dictator in
“the national interest”.
“ GO, MUSHARRAF, GO”. The cry is in the
air. But go When? Where? How? These questions are
not being seriously addressed. Opposition to the President
continuing in office is increasing rapidly and may
well come to a head very soon. The President has many
options on how to stay in power. Even though there
have been huge rallies in support of the Chief Justice;
there is widespread condemnation of the 12th May carnage
in Karachi and the public is clamouring against restrictions
on the media, conditions have not yet reached the
stage which could lead to extreme action by the government.
The President has not yet felt the need to use any
of his million men in uniform -----police, scouts,
levies, Rangers, para military and the Armed Forces.
Pushed in to a corner, there is no doubt that the
President can react with force, like his predecessors
have done in the past. Yahya Khan, to retain power,
had no hesitation in committing genocide in East Pakistan
where, as per the National Geographic magazine of
January 2006, over 3 million were killed. This, incidentally,
was the fifth largest genocide of the centuary (after
Mao Tse Tung’s 30m, Stalin’s 20m, Hitler’s
11m and Japan’s 10m). God willing President
Musharraf will not be forced to take that route but,
if push comes to shove, he will use force to retain
power.
The President is besieged on all sides. Foreign allies
are abandoning him. He bitterly complains of his own
partners no longer standing up for him. Perhaps the
end run has begun but whether it takes a week, a month,
a year or a decade is impossible to predict. In the
final analysis it must be recognized that a military
dictator cannot be easily dislodged, except through
violence. Or else by he himself agreeing to give up
power. To obtain his consent a safe exit for the President
is necessary.
In these columns exactly a year back( the Nation,
June 24, 2006) it was suggested that only snap elections,
in which everyone wins, could save the situation.
Even today an immediate restoration of the Chief Justice
and dismissal of the Prime Minister and the cabinet
responsible for this judicial crisis, completely free
and fair elections under a caretaker government and
an acceptable Election Commission is probably the
best solution. Giving only a month or so for elections,
the opposition will have to scramble to get organized.
PML(Q)’s incumbency disadvantage will be off-set
by their existing effective presence on the ground,
which others do not have. In this scenario no party
is likely to get a clear majority and coalitions and
compromises will be the order of the day.
The President can oversee a clean election and transfer
of power long before his constitutionally approved
Presidential and Army tenures expire. A grateful nation
may well reelect him President without uniform. Even
if they don’t, he can retire on completion of
his term, thus becoming the first leader in Pakistan’s
history to ride into the sunset with honour and dignity.
Every other leader either died in office (Quaid-e-Azam,
Liaquat Ali Khan, Zia-ul-Haq) or was unceremoniously
booted out (Benazir, Nawaz Sharif, Junejo, Leghari,
et al). Though a very long shot it is perhaps the
best option for the nation, for the President and
for all political parties.
Another solution, which can avoid violence and bloodshed,
involves Benazir Bhutto joining the PPP Patriots.
Signals from Dubai, London, and Islamabad have been
mixed but have clearly indicated that Miss Bhutto
may join Rao Sikandar and his Patriots on the President’s
team. Rao Sikandar helped President Musharraf form
a government in 2002, after government PPP negotiations
broke down. The negotiators of 2007 hope that Miss
Bhutto will now agree to join the Patriots to become
Prime Minister in exchange for securing another 5-Year
term for the President. This would be ideal for both
of them and will undoubtedly be supported by America
and the West, as it would combine Benazir’s
liberal-democratic credentials with the President’s
standing in the war or terror.
It would, however, decimate the People’s Party.
The raison d’etre of the PPP is the legacy of
Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. When Shah Nawaz and Murtaza claimed
leadership of the Party as their “legitimate
expectancy”, being sons of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto,
the party rejected them for their violent, nondemocratic
credentials and instead backed their sister. It is
clear that if Benazir joins the Patriots in supporting
a military dictatorship against the principles of
her deeply venerated father, the PPP may well reject
her, as it did her brothers.
Consider the mood of the street. Prominent party leaders
will not dare enter their constituencies through shame
and embarrassment on their volte-face in joining General
Musharraf’s government. The jayala will be completely
disillusioned and will have no inspiration to vote
for turncoats. Worse still, the new Patriots will
be linked with the outgoing Musharraf government and
be the butt of pent-up anti American and anti dictatorship
slogans, issues which will dominate the next elections.
The gainer will undoubtedly be Nawaz Sharif, whose
sole demand is free and fair elections, whose rhetoric
is an election-winning anti-America, anti-dictatorship
mantra and who is sticking with the pledges of the
Charter of Democracy.
It is therefore, highly probable that in the unlikely
event of Miss Bhutto joining the Patriots on the side
of Gen. Musharraf, the PPP will settle for replacing
its own leadership by one which maintains Zulfiqar
Ali Bhutto’s legacy. History has many parallels,
the most prominent being Peronistas without the Perons.
The people of Argentina gave the flambuoyant President
Peron’s widow the Presidency. When her term
expired they gracefully showed her the door and returned
triumphantly to power as the Peronista party without
the Perons. It remains to be seen if we end up with
this scenario, or months of conflict with an intransigent
President or a peaceful change where everyone wins.
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