Twenty years back a sleepy town in the backwaters of Sind was suddenly awakened to the stunning news that one of its sons had just been named a judge of the High Court, a quantum leap from his modest rural practice to the glittering centre-stage of Karachi.
The unknown son --- Dogar; his mentor--- Benazir; the town ------ Khairpur. Benazir is dead, brutally assassinated, leaving behind a severely handicapped mother, three young children and a bitter husband, justifiably full of anger after a decade in jail without ever being convicted
The same Mr. Dogar is now Chief Justice of Pakistan, appointed to the post under strange circumstances by a hugely discredited Army Chief. Mr. Dogar now stands beholden to two persons--the President; and Ms Bhutto's grieving widower Asif Zardari.
Mr. Zardari has been suddenly propelled into the vacant leadership of the People's Party.
For the first time in its tumultuous history the Pakistan People's Party is no longer led by a Bhutto. It is like Argentina under the charismatic Juan Peron. When he died a nation in mourning elected his grieving widow President. After her term the leadership went away from his family. His party continues to thrive. Even today they hold the Presidency, but without anyone from his family--the Peronistas without the Perons.
Something similar is happening in Pakistan. After ZAB Nusrat Bhutto led the party and then came Benazir. But today no Bhutto descended from Zulfiquar Ali leads the party. In fact reportedly not a single one of them is even a member of the People's Party. They have completely disappeared from the PPP, leaving behind a glorious legacy of charisma, courage and popular leadership.
Their team of dedicated loyalists stands totally sidelined. Amin Fahmi, Aitzaz Ahsan, Taj Jamali, Yusuf Talpur, Naheed Khan, Safdar Abassi, Envar Baig, Raza Rabbani. A new Zardari team, mostly unelected, all unelectable, far removed from the public is running the country ------ Salman Farooqi, Hussain Haqqani, Rehman Malik, Mahmood Durrani, Farooq Naek, now even Zia Ispahani.
Along with faces, their policies and values have also changed. They could have ousted the dictator, as demanded by the public. Instead they have effectively become his B-team. They could have fulfilled the demand of the people to restore the courageous Chief Justice and judges jailed by the dictator. Instead they are the sole hurdle to the restoration of these judges.
Once called the “Qatil League” by Asif Zardari the ‘Q’ Quislings are fast emerging as a potential indispensable ally, without whose partnership the funky constitutional package of Farooq Naek is a non – starter.
In America they have the neo-cons. In Pakistan we have the “neo-pipilyas”. They are far removed from the ideals, the lives and deaths, of Zulfiquar and Benazir Bhutto. Under pressure from the old jiyalas these “neo-pipilya” policies of appeasement with dictatorship will surely be reversed. Already Mr. Zardari is distancing himself from the President, under pressure from the old jiyalas. Today the PPP leadership vacuum is filled by the Zardaris. Tomorrow it could be anyone else---the Hala Makhdooms, the Talpurs, the Aitzaz Ahsans, the Sardar Assefs, the Multan Gardezis or Quraishis, anyone who wins the minds, the hearts, the love of PPP workers thirsting for leadership.
Now back to Mr. Dogar, for whom it is payback time. For his main benefactor (Mr. Musharraf) he has legalized all the illegalities of the 3rd of November, which Musharraf himself acknowledges to be unconstitutional. And for Mr. Zardari the Dogar court has opened all doors by striking down the BA Degree eligibility clause.
Without a BA Degree Mr. Zardari could not get elected to Parliament. Now he can get elected and become Prime Minister. But he has obviously chosen a different path. He is not a candidate for the forthcoming by-elections. So he can not be Prime Minister.
But one job within his easy grasp is President. No matter what the obnoxious American deal, Mr. Musharraf will surely go, sooner rather than later. The Presidency will be up for grabs. Mr. Zardari can never forget that Benazir appointed Farooq Laghari President, as she believed him to be totally loyal. Instead, he booted her out and threw Zardari into jail, where he languished for the next ten years.
To meet popular demands he could even give up 58(2)b and the power to appoint governors, service chiefs, judges etc, abolish the NSC and increase the powers of the Prime Minister. It hardly matters, as the Cabinet are his nominee, over whom he already commands full authority. He can appoint or replace anyone he chooses to, with or without 58(2)b.
He is fully aware that Prime Ministers are often thrown out by
Presidents-- a la Farooq Laghari, Ghulam Ishaq, Ziaulhaq, et al. But Presidents are seldom kicked out by Prime Ministers. So why should he name someone else for the post.
The future of Pakistan is being shaped by a host of historic events of the last one year----. The 9th of March; the lawyers movement; the Charter of Democracy; the 20th of July; the shedding of a uniform; Nawaz Sharif's return; Benazir's death; the 3rd of November; the odious American-brokered 'deal', The Murree Accord; general elections. On the military front the Army’s defeats; Swat, FATA and Lal Masjid; the slaughter of Bugti; US military operations inside Pakistan. For the common man growing economic woes; political uncertainty; an atmosphere of gloom and doom; and sky rocketing prices, including sugar, atta, electricity and fuel.
The list is endless. Who will win, who will lose is impossible to predict. Will the country sink or swim one cannot tell. Is another 50(2) b slaughter on the anvil? There is much talk, though it is highly unlikely. Mr. Zardari faces immense challenges, not least of which are the pressures of the war on terror. His government is standing up well to the US so far. His public support in eroding. But he still has enough goodwill amongst the masses to take courageous decisions for change.
Within a couple of weeks judges may or may not be restored. But some things are now clear. Sooner or later there will be a new President. Kayani has opted out. So the new man may well be Zardari. There is no other viable candidate.
As for the PPP, for years to come there will be no Bhutto leading the Party. Today it is a Zardari. In future it could be someone else, a non-Bhutto, and a non-Zardari. The PPP is in for a very rough ride.
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